Friday, March 9, 2012

Space Fission Power Post #1:

We Need to Explore and Expand our Presence in Space.

Our inherent desire to question and explore is at the root of being human.  This statement in itself, if you adhere to it, should be enough to justify a significant expenditure of societal resources on space exploration.  Unfortunately, it is not that simple. It is also human nature to have compassion for those in need, creating a constant struggle within individuals and society regarding the allocation of finite resources.  One must not only weigh the value of helping unfortunate individuals against helping society as a whole, but also the value of people alive today against people in generations come.  The comparison becomes more complex upon realization that an investment that increases the long-term viability of humanity means that the number of individuals helped could be countless, and the value of that investment priceless.  In this regard, the benefits of space exploration go far beyond our inherent curiosity—perhaps to the outright survival of the human race. 

Some of the benefits of space exploration are summarized below as they relate to four themes: curiosity and inspiration, science and technology, philosophy and enlightenment, and viability and preservation. The categorizing of the benefits, and to a larger extent what constitutes a benefit, is of course highly dependent on the individual.

Curiosity and Inspiration

It is human nature to be curious in all facets of life, and when possible to explore and expand into new frontiers. Curiosity is at the root of most paradigm shifting discoveries and advances in the human condition. Many would adhere to the philosophy that as soon as we stop asking questions we stop being human. It is because of our curiosity that space exploration is viewed favorably by almost everyone worldwide. Our relatively short history of space exploration has successfully answered many questions, while posing even more interesting ones. More so, exploration inspires people, particularly young people because their curiosity burns brightest.  It is no coincidence that the U.S. had a boom of technical innovation from the generation that grew up during the Apollo program. The Apollo program inspired many youth to pursue careers in math, science, and engineering with dreams of being a part of something even bigger when they were adults.  It can be argued that the current generation of American kids is becoming inferior in math and science, and perhaps more apathetic in general, because they lack such inspiration.  History also shows that the most successful civilizations continually explore beyond their known boundaries. Countries such as China, Russia and India must see some value in these respects, because in 2012 they continue to expand their human space programs, despite having smaller economies than the U.S.  Finally, in addition to inspiration, space exploration unifies all with a sense of pride and purpose, and a realization that our fates and those of future generations are to some extent are all linked together.

Science and Technology. 

Space programs enable the development and acquisition of technology, information, and resources that benefit all of humankind.  Technology spin-offs, whether direct or not, are usually the most talked about and documented benefit of space exploration.  Many compelling arguments have been made that justify investment in space exploration based solely on these tangible benefits. Some of the most obvious benefits are provided by satellites in orbit of the Earth, for example weather/climate prediction.  NASA specifically has a long list of technologies that were direct spin-offs from their space programs, ranging from transportation to health care.  The space program also had major influence on the development of the microprocessor and how computers are used.  In addition to technology, the scientific information learned from space exploration, i.e. the evolution of planets and stars, the predictability of solar flares, probabilities of asteroid impacts, etc., can be used to help us live within our environment and mitigate possible changes to our environment.  Beyond science and technology, space exploration has the potential to provide us resources as well, e.g. solar power beamed from space, rare materials from the moon or asteroids, or future resources that we are not even aware of.

Philosophy and Enlightenment

The most profound reason to explore the universe is to investigate the origin and nature of our existence. This is also the most contentious reason, because the issue of philosophy is entangled with religious beliefs.  A large fraction the people alive today believe that we already know the origin and purpose of our existence. A smaller fraction of those people could be correct, but they should have no objection to learning as much as we can about the physical nature of our existence.  In most cases, scientific discoveries could either confirm or shake the foundations of a specific faith (e.g. ancient gods lost followers when science displaced the use for that god).  Some of today’s religions preclude the possibility of life evolving elsewhere in the universe.  In this case, if life is found elsewhere they would have to rethink their faith, while if life is not found elsewhere then it would likely strengthen their faith and draw others to it (because this result would be in contrast to most scientific expectations). Likewise, those that believe everything ultimately has a natural explanation are not immune to this line of thinking; future discoveries, or lack thereof, could cause them to rethink their faith that science will explain everything.  Regardless, for many people enlightenment is the ultimate goal of life (even if enlightenment is simply knowing the proper questions to ask), and space exploration could help immensely in this endeavor.

Viability and Preservation.

The all-or-nothing benefit of space exploration is the long-term survival of the human race; although the extended timeframe of this benefit makes it very hard to quantify.  We know that our life on Earth is finite, but the preservation benefit of sustained civilization outside of the Earth could range from enormous to miniscule depending on whether viability of human life on Earth ends in <1 thousand years or >1 billion years.  There is a long list of potential calamities that could end human civilization, including asteroid/comet, super-virus, excess volcanism, socioeconomic collapse, environmental changes, weapons of mass destruction, or maybe something we’ve never envisioned.  Some of these initiating events can be mitigated or prevented as a result of space exploration; most notably the ability to deflect or destroy a potential extinction causing asteroid or comet.  The ability to deflect an asteroid could actually be developed within a decade using existing technology, the question is would we have enough warning time to successfully develop and deploy it.  Space exploration could also uncover currently unknown threats, such as looming changes in the behavior of the sun, or maybe astronomical threats such as nearby black holes, supernovae, dark matter, or something our current understanding of physics is not aware of. 

The ultimate defense against human extinction would be to establish permanent, self-sustaining colonies of humans beyond the Earth.  The path to this type of existence does not require a huge leap in science and technology; most engineers agree that abundant, reliable energy (probably nuclear) is the key to expanding into space. In the near term (decades) exploration could focus on where and how to develop sustainable communities away from the earth, including quasi-sustainable outposts on the moon and Mars.  In the mid-term (centuries) sustainable outposts could be created on Mars, Titan, asteroids, etc. that could be considered planetary lifeboats, as a safeguard against major calamities that could end human civilization.  In the long term (millennia), the concept of the “planetary lifeboat” could transform to a “celestial Mayflower”, taking us to new worlds outside of our solar system.  The benefits of this scenario are not limited to merely saving the human race.  Even if humanity continues to thrive on Earth, there would be the possibility for a nearly unlimited number of humans to experience existence (in addition to the increased population that Earth could support by importing resources) and expand the extent of human condition (e.g. well-being, knowledge, and enlightenment).  If new opportunities and experiences emerge, people will migrate to them, just as they did to the New World ~500 years ago.

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